Why the Banker Bet is the Best Baccarat Strategy

Written by Oliver Jones Last updated: 25/02/2025

If you’re into baccarat and have been wondering how to make better bets, you’re not alone. Many people swear by the banker bet, claiming it’s the best way to play. But is it really? In this article, we’ll dig into why the banker bet is often seen as the top choice for baccarat players in New Zealand and whether it holds up under scrutiny.

1. Banker Bet

Alright, let’s talk about the Banker bet. If you’re new to baccarat, this is probably the first thing you’ll hear about. It’s the go-to choice for most players, and for good reason. The Banker bet has a lower house edge compared to other options, which means you’ve got slightly better odds of walking away with a win. Statistically speaking, it’s the safest bet on the table.

Here’s the deal:

• The Banker wins more often than the Player. On average, in an 8-deck shoe, you’ll see around 37 Banker wins, 33 Player wins, and 5 Ties.
• There’s a 5% commission on Banker wins, which might sound like a bummer, but even with that, it’s still the smarter choice.
• The house edge for the Banker bet is just 1.06%, making it the most favourable option.

Why is the Banker Bet Better?

The Banker has a slight advantage because of how the rules work. The Banker gets to act after the Player, meaning it has more information to decide whether it needs a third card. This little edge adds up over time, making the Banker bet the most reliable option.

Let’s be real – no bet is a guaranteed win, but the Banker bet gives you the best shot. It’s like picking the least risky option in a game that’s all about risks.

If you’re just starting out or even if you’re a seasoned player, sticking with the Banker bet is a solid strategy. It’s not flashy, but it works. And if you’re looking for where to play, check out the best online baccarat casinos for 2025 to get started.

2. House Edge

Alright, let’s talk about the house edge—one of those things that’s always working against you, whether you like it or not. In baccarat, the house edge is the casino’s built-in advantage, and it’s why they always win in the long run. But the good news? The Banker bet happens to have the lowest house edge compared to the other options in the game.

Here’s how it breaks down:

• Banker Bet: 1.06%
• Player Bet: 1.24%
• Tie Bet: A whopping 14.36% (yikes!)

So, if you’re sticking with the Banker bet, you’re already giving yourself the best shot at keeping your losses low. Sure, the casino takes a 5% commission on winning Banker bets, but even with that, the edge is still better than the Player bet.

Pro Tip: Over time, that small percentage difference can add up, especially if you’re betting consistently. The lower the house edge, the longer your money lasts.

Now, don’t get me wrong—this doesn’t mean you’re guaranteed to win. The house edge ensures the casino stays profitable, but by choosing the Banker bet, you’re at least playing smart. And in a game like baccarat, where luck is a huge factor, every little advantage counts.

3. Commission Impact

Alright, let’s talk about the commission on the Banker bet. It’s one of those things that seems small but can really add up if you’re not paying attention. Most casinos slap a 5% commission on every winning Banker bet. That’s how they keep the house edge in their favour.

Why Does the Commission Exist?

The Banker bet has a higher chance of winning compared to the Player bet. To balance things out, casinos tack on that commission. Without it, the Banker bet would be way too good, and let’s face it, the house isn’t in the business of losing money.

How Much Does It Really Cost You?

Here’s a quick breakdown of how the commission impacts your winnings:

So yeah, it’s not massive for small bets, but if you’re playing big, it can take a noticeable chunk out of your profits.

Should You Worry About It?

Honestly, I wouldn’t stress too much about the commission. Even with the 5%, the Banker bet is still statistically the best option in baccarat. If you’re flat betting and keeping things simple, the commission is just part of the game. It’s like paying a small fee for better odds.

Pro tip: Some casinos offer reduced commissions during promotions. Keep an eye out for those if you want to stretch your bankroll further.

The bottom line? The commission isn’t a dealbreaker. It’s just something to be aware of so you’re not caught off guard. Stick to the Banker bet, and you’ll still have the best shot at coming out ahead.

4. Streak Patterns

When you sit down for a game of baccarat, one thing becomes clear pretty quickly: streaks are a big deal. Whether it’s the Banker or Player, patterns tend to emerge, and they can really mess with your head. Let’s break it down.

Types of Streaks

• Banker Streaks: This is when the Banker wins several times in a row, like B-B-B-B-B. Feels great if you’re betting on Banker, but if you’re on Player? Ouch.
• Player Streaks: Same deal, but with Player wins piling up: P-P-P-P-P.
• Choppy Streaks: This is where it alternates back and forth, like B-P-B-P-B. Super frustrating because it’s hard to get a rhythm.
• Short Streaks and Mixed Patterns: You might see something like B-B-B, then P-B-P, or even P-P-P followed by B-P-P. It’s all over the place.

Can You Predict Streaks?

Here’s the thing: every hand is statistically independent, which means past outcomes don’t influence future ones. Even if you’ve seen Banker win ten times in a row, the next hand is still a toss-up. But that doesn’t stop us from trying to spot patterns, does it?

The trick isn’t to predict the streak itself—it’s about recognising when one might be forming and riding that wave for as long as it lasts.

Why Banker Streaks Seem More Common

The Banker bet has a slight edge due to baccarat’s drawing rules, which means Banker streaks might feel more frequent. But don’t let that fool you. Over a short session, Player streaks or even choppy runs can dominate just as easily.

My Take on Streaks

I’ve learned the hard way that chasing streaks can be a slippery slope. Sure, they’re tempting, and when you catch one, it’s a rush. But if you’re not careful, you’ll end up doubling down on a streak that’s already fizzled out. My advice? Keep your bets steady and don’t overthink it. Streaks are fun, but they’re not the be-all and end-all of baccarat strategy.

5. Flat Betting

Flat betting is, in my opinion, one of the simplest ways to enjoy baccarat without overcomplicating things. It’s straightforward: you bet the same amount on every hand, no matter what happens. No doubling down, no fancy sequences—just steady, consistent wagers. This approach is all about keeping things predictable and manageable.

Why Flat Betting Works

1. Control your bankroll: With flat betting, you avoid the wild swings that come with progressive strategies. It’s easier to stick to a budget and play for longer.
2. No chasing losses: You’re not trying to recover losses by betting more, which can spiral out of control. Instead, you’re staying calm and consistent.
3. Simplicity: There’s no need to remember sequences or adjust your bets. Just place the same wager each time.

The Numbers Behind Flat Betting

Here’s an example of a typical win/loss pattern using flat betting:

At the end of this sequence, you’re slightly ahead. Even with losses sprinkled in, the steady approach can keep you afloat.

Flat betting doesn’t promise massive wins, but it’s a great way to enjoy the game without unnecessary stress.

6. Fibonacci Strategy

The Fibonacci strategy is one of those approaches that feels like it’s made for people who want to play it safe but still keep things interesting. It’s based on the Fibonacci Sequence, where each number is the sum of the two before it. For example: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, and so on. You use this sequence to decide your bet sizes.

Here’s how it works:

1. Start with the smallest number in the sequence.
2. If you lose, move to the next number in the sequence (increase your bet).
3. If you win, step back two numbers in the sequence (decrease your bet).
4. Repeat.

Why People Like It

• Less risky than something like the Martingale system since your bets don’t double after every loss.
• It’s a bit more forgiving on your bankroll, making it great for beginners.
• Gives you a structured way to manage your bets without feeling completely random.

The Downside

• You’ll need a decent bankroll to ride out losing streaks.
• Winning streaks might not cover your earlier losses completely.
• It’s still not a magic bullet—like any strategy, it’s not foolproof.

I’ve found this strategy super useful when I want to keep things steady and avoid the stress of massive bet jumps. It’s not about huge wins but about staying in the game longer.

If you’re looking for a structured way to bet without going overboard, give the Fibonacci strategy a shot. It’s a smart middle ground between aggressive and cautious betting.

7. Martingale Strategy

The Martingale strategy is one of those systems that sounds simple on paper but can be a bit tricky in practise. At its core, the idea is straightforward: double your bet after every loss until you win. The goal? Recover all your losses and pocket a small profit. But let me tell you, it’s not all sunshine and rainbows.

How It Works

Here’s the basic rundown of how the Martingale strategy plays out:

1. Start with a base bet (say, 1 unit).
2. If you lose, double your bet on the next round.
3. Keep doubling after each loss until you win.
4. Once you win, go back to your original base bet.

For example:

The Pros

• Easy to understand – No need for spreadsheets or complex calculations.
• Theoretically guarantees a win if you have unlimited funds and no table limits.
• Can help recover losses quickly during short sessions.

The Cons

• Requires a hefty bankroll to survive long losing streaks.
• Table limits can block you from doubling indefinitely.
• Doesn’t account for the 5% commission on Banker wins, which can eat into your profits.

The big risk with Martingale? Hitting a losing streak that wipes out your bankroll before you can recover. It’s the kind of strategy that looks great in theory but can be brutal in reality.

Is It Worth It?

Honestly, if you’re playing for fun and have a solid bankroll, the Martingale can add a bit of excitement. But if you’re chasing consistent wins, it’s probably not the best choice. Baccarat is a game of chance, and no strategy can completely eliminate the house edge. Play smart, and don’t bet more than you’re willing to lose.

8. Paroli Strategy

The Paroli strategy is one of those systems that feels straightforward but can really keep you on your toes. It’s often called the "reverse Martingale," and the idea is simple: you double your bet after each win. The goal? Ride the wave of a winning streak and squeeze as much profit as you can before the tide turns.

How It Works

1. Start with a base bet—say, $10.
2. If you win, double your bet on the next round (so $20, then $40, and so on).
3. After three consecutive wins, reset to your base bet.
4. If you lose at any point, go back to the base bet immediately.

This structure is designed to limit your losses while letting you capitalise on those rare hot streaks. But hey, nothing’s perfect.

Pros of the Paroli Strategy

• Maximises gains during winning streaks, which is what every player dreams of.
• Limits losses since you’re only risking profits after the first win.
• It’s a simple system—no calculators or spreadsheets needed.

Cons of the Paroli Strategy

• Relies heavily on luck. You need consecutive wins to see any real profit.
• Losing streaks can wipe out gains quickly.
• Not ideal for players with small bankrolls, as doubling bets can escalate quickly.

Personally, I find the Paroli strategy fun to use. It’s less stressful than systems like the Martingale, where you’re chasing losses. But let’s be real—it’s not a magic bullet. Baccarat is still a game of chance, and no strategy can guarantee a win.

If you’re someone who loves the thrill of streaks, this strategy might just be your jam. Just remember to keep an eye on your bankroll and don’t let the excitement of doubling bets get the better of you. And if you’re looking for that extra layer of excitement in your gaming experience, consider exploring Blackjack side bets—they offer a similar rush with the potential for big payouts.

9. Choppy Streaks

Baccarat can be a wild ride, and nothing highlights this more than choppy streaks. These are those unpredictable patterns where the results swing back and forth between Banker and Player, like B-P-B-P-B-P. It’s enough to make your head spin, right? But let’s break it down.

What Are Choppy Streaks?

Choppy streaks are basically the opposite of those long winning runs you might be hoping for. Instead of a steady streak of Banker or Player wins, the outcomes flip-flop constantly. One minute you think Banker’s on a roll, and boom—Player snags the next hand. It’s chaotic, and it’s why baccarat is so tricky to predict.

Why Do They Matter?

Here’s the thing: choppy streaks can mess with your betting strategy big time. If you’re someone who likes to ride a streak, these patterns can drain your bankroll faster than you can say "shuffle." That’s why it’s crucial to have a strategy that accounts for these swings. Flat betting, for instance, might help you weather the storm without taking huge risks.

How to Handle Choppy Streaks

1. Stick to Banker bets: Statistically, Banker has a slight edge, even in chaotic streaks.
2. Use flat betting: Keep your bets consistent to avoid getting wiped out.
3. Set limits: Decide beforehand how much you’re willing to lose and stick to it. Discipline is key.

Choppy streaks remind us that baccarat isn’t about predicting the future—it’s about managing the present. Stay cool, keep your bets steady, and don’t let the chaos throw you off your game.

For tips on managing your bankroll during streaky games, check out bankroll management in slot gaming. While it’s not baccarat-specific, the principles are spot on for keeping your finances in check.

10. Player Bet

Alright, let’s talk about the Player Bet. It’s the counterpart to the Banker Bet and, honestly, it’s not as bad as people make it out to be. Here’s the deal: when you bet on the Player, you’re wagering that the Player’s hand will beat the Banker’s hand. Simple enough, right? If the Player wins, your payout is 1:1—no commissions, no strings attached.

Why Some People Choose the Player Bet

1. No Commission: Unlike the Banker Bet, there’s no 5% cut taken from your winnings. What you win is what you keep.
2. Straightforward Odds: The Player Bet has a house edge of about 1.24%, which is slightly higher than the Banker but still decent.
3. It’s Just Fun: Some folks just like rooting for the Player. It feels more personal, like you’re backing the underdog.

Downsides of the Player Bet

• Not as Reliable: The Banker has a slight statistical edge due to the rules around drawing a third card. Betting on the Player means you’re going against that edge.
• No Long-Term Advantage: If you’re all about strategy, the Player Bet doesn’t offer the same consistency as the Banker Bet.

Pro tip: If you’re playing for fun and not trying to squeeze every ounce of advantage, the Player Bet can be a nice change of pace. Just don’t expect it to perform as well in the long run.

Quick Comparison: Player vs Banker

At the end of the day, the Player Bet is a solid choice for casual players who aren’t too worried about squeezing out every advantage. It’s easy, it’s fair, and hey, sometimes it’s just fun to mix things up.

Wrapping It Up

So, there you have it. Betting on the Banker might seem like the golden ticket in baccarat, but it’s not all sunshine and rainbows. Sure, it’s got a lower house edge, but that pesky 5% commission can really chip away at your winnings over time. And let’s not forget—you’re not going to win every Banker hand, no matter how much you bet. At the end of the day, baccarat is a game of chance, and no strategy can guarantee a win. The best approach? Play smart, manage your bankroll, and most importantly, have fun. After all, it’s just a game—don’t let it stress you out too much.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Banker bet in baccarat?

The Banker bet is one of the main betting options in baccarat, where you wager that the banker’s hand will win. It has a slightly better probability of winning compared to the Player bet.

Why does the Banker bet have a lower house edge?

The Banker bet has a lower house edge because of the game’s drawing rules, giving it a slight advantage over the Player bet. The house edge for the Banker bet is usually around 1.06%.

What is the impact of the 5% commission on Banker wins?

When you win a Banker bet, the casino takes a 5% commission from your winnings. Over time, this can reduce your overall profit, especially if you’re betting large amounts.

Is flat betting a good strategy for baccarat?

Flat betting, where you wager the same amount on every hand, is a simple and low-risk strategy. It helps manage your bankroll and is a good starting point for beginners.

What are streak patterns in baccarat?

Streak patterns refer to consecutive wins by either the Banker or Player. Some players try to identify these streaks to predict future outcomes, but the game remains largely random.

How does the Martingale strategy work in baccarat?

The Martingale strategy involves doubling your bet after every loss. The idea is to recover previous losses with a single win, but it can be risky if you hit a long losing streak.

What is the Fibonacci strategy in baccarat?

The Fibonacci strategy is a betting system based on the Fibonacci sequence. You increase your bet after a loss by following the sequence, aiming to recover losses gradually.

What is the Paroli betting strategy?

The Paroli strategy focuses on capitalising on winning streaks. You double your bet after each win and reset to your original wager after a loss, limiting potential losses.

Why do some players avoid the Player bet?

Although the Player bet is a valid option, it has a slightly higher house edge (around 1.24%) compared to the Banker bet, making it less favourable for some players.

What is a choppy streak in baccarat?

A choppy streak happens when the outcomes alternate frequently between Banker and Player wins. This pattern can make it harder to predict the next result.

How does the house edge affect baccarat strategies?

The house edge represents the casino’s built-in advantage. Even with strategies, the house edge ensures the casino profits over the long run, so managing expectations is important.

Is there a guaranteed way to win at baccarat?

No, baccarat is a game of chance. While strategies can help manage your bets and losses, there’s no foolproof way to guarantee consistent wins.

Oliver Jones

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Oliver Jones is a seasoned journalist with a specialty in the iGaming sector. With a robust background that marries 11 years in mainstream journalism with 4 years dedicated to the online casino industry, Oliver provides a unique blend of relevant news and insightful analysis.

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